Six Keys To Punting Success - Part 6
By: DAVID DUFFIELD

In the final instalment in this series, today I will discuss betting with ratings. As a long-term professional punter this is obviously a subject I feel well qualified to talk about.

There are many ways to implement ratings and the approach you take really depends on the individual. If the rated markets are framed to a percentage of less than 100 (say 95%) it means is that if you were actually able to secure the rated price on each runner to collect $100 then you would be spending $95 and showing a profit of $5. If you secured overlays the profit margin will be even greater.

Of course it is most unlikely that you will experience a 95% market, even if you shopped particularly well securing the best prices offered amongst bookmakers, Betfair and best tote. In saying that, markets of less than 100% can occur very occasionally and when it does you are in a win/win situation for no matter what the result of the race is, you will make a profit.

In a normal 100%+ market you need to formulate a plan as to how you intend to invest into each race and that plan will differ from race to race. Let’s say in a particular event with nine runners the assessed chance of each horse (in a market framed to 95%) was as follows.

Assessed 95% Bet req’d to collect $100 Actual Market 1. $2.50 $40 $2.30 2. $4.00 $25 $4.50 3. $10.00 $10 $7.50 4. $12.00 $8.50 $16 4. $20.00 $5 $12 5. $25.00 $4 $16 6. $40.00 $2.50 $25 $95.00

In the above race the two horses that are over the odds are #2 and #4. One strategy would be to back them both to win a percentage of your starting bank, which for the sake of this exercise is $100. The bets would be $25 and $8.50 win on #2 and #4 respectively.

If #2 wins the collect will be $112.50 and if #4 wins $136.00. The area that many punters have difficulty understanding is that in a situation like the one above you should not be backing the top-rated horse. While it is assessed as having the best chance of winning the race, it is not a value bet at the available odds.

Rated at $2.50 it’s chance of winning is 40%, so over 100 races it is expected to salute 40 times. Taking unders at $2.30 will return only $92 per win x 100 races = $3680. The outlay of $40 x 100 races is $4000 so over a period of 100 races you can expect to lose $320.

Alternatively the chance of # 2 winning is 25% (calculated by dividing it’s rated price into 100). So over 100 races the outlay would be $25 x 100 = $2500. The return would be $112.50 x 25 which is $2812.50. This leaves a profit of $312.50 less the amount invested on # 4.

This is the principle behind obtaining value and it is no different to the example used of trying to get odds of more than $2 about a coin toss. Securing overs does not mean the horse will win, nor does it mean the horse has a better chance of winning. More importantly though, it means that in the long run you will win.

In the short-term you will experience losing bets and losing runs, but by combining a consistent staking plan with a disciplined approach you will end up with a positive result.

Previous articles in this series covered the following topics: (1) Unrealistic expectations (2) You will experience losing periods (3) Probability will affect your bank (4) Understanding market percentages (5) Discipline is the key

I hope you have found these articles helpful in some way and I am happy to field any questions at championpicks@gmail.com

David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Horse Racing Tips.

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